What's the consensus on the KFBA implications of LeBron, Wade and Bosh forming the biggest three ever? They can't all average 1.000 + or can they? Who's going to lose the most? My guess is that Bosh is at best a 18/8/3 guy in 38 min which would make him a third rounder KFBA at best.
Thoughts?
Given that they don't seem to have much of a roster beyond the "big three" if in fact James goes there, I'd look for 1.2 ballpark for James and Wade, 1.000 for Bosh, and a whole lot of .500 from everyone else.
A bit of data, for the fun of it
Here's a couple cases I can think of with two superstars together, and what happened when the second arrived.I don't think of Bosh as quite the same level as Wade and James, in NBA terms. Jabbar/Johnson/WorthyJabbarSeason TRB AST STL BLK PTS1975 12 3.5 0.9 2.8 25.5 1.2421976 14.7 4.4 1.3 3.6 24.2 1.3391977 13 3.8 1.2 3.1 25.7 1.3001978 12.7 4.3 1.6 2.9 25.4 1.3031979 11.7 4.9 0.9 3.6 21.7 1.1891980 10.1 4.2 0.9 3.2 23.3 1.158*1981 9.9 3.3 0.7 2.8 25.3 1.167*1982 8.9 3 0.8 2.8 24.4 1.108*1983 8.3 2.8 0.9 2.4 24.3 1.075**Johnson arrived. For what it's worth, the transition for Johnson was pretty brief. .994 as a rookie,
then 1.056 to 1.2+ territory for the next 10 years. No real change when Jabbar retired. Worthy actually was mostly
a .850-.900 guy from day one, and his arrival didn't make any difference to the numbers of the other two.
David Robinson / Duncan.Sadly, this isn't much good. Robinson's numbers were notably lower with Duncan around, but he had missednearly the entire previous season with an injury (I think it was an injury) and he was 32 years old whenDuncan's rookie season started.
I think you´re a bit too optimistic there. The Heat as a team were running at 0,71 last season so if Bron / Wade / Bosh to average 1,2 / 1,2 / 1,0 in 40 minutes each, the rest would run at 0,285. The worst regular KFBA player last year was DeShawn Stevenson at 0,36. So Miami must turn into a decidedly faster and more efficient team for the big three to match last years KFBA averages.
Let´s say they become as good as the Phoenix Suns, our favorite stat getting team at 0,78 last season. And let´s say that the whole role player fraction scores at about a 0,45 pace.
That would leave an average of 1,11 for our big three. My guess would be that Bron / Wade woulb be at 1,2 each and Bosh at 0,9. And i think that this is the absolute best case scenario for them, playing with Phoenix like efficiency and role players who absolutely don´t want to shoot. Guys like Brian Cardinal or Joel Anthony...
So buyer beware...
If LeBron goes to Miami, I think it will shake up the KFBA rankings and make top half of every draft much more interesting.
I guess I think in terms of the "big three" playing rather less than 40 minutes per game. I was also rather lazy about the math.
It does make a pretty good case for whoever picked Durant second in the mock draft . . . .
younggod: I think you´re a bit too optimistic there. The Heat as a team were running at 0,71 last season so if Bron / Wade / Bosh to average 1,2 / 1,2 / 1,0 in 40 minutes each, the rest would run at 0,285. The worst regular KFBA player last year was DeShawn Stevenson at 0,36. So Miami must turn into a decidedly faster and more efficient team for the big three to match last years KFBA averages. Let´s say they become as good as the Phoenix Suns, our favorite stat getting team at 0,78 last season. And let´s say that the whole role player fraction scores at about a 0,45 pace. That would leave an average of 1,11 for our big three. My guess would be that Bron / Wade woulb be at 1,2 each and Bosh at 0,9. And i think that this is the absolute best case scenario for them, playing with Phoenix like efficiency and role players who absolutely don´t want to shoot. Guys like Brian Cardinal or Joel Anthony... So buyer beware...
Yeah, 40 seems a bit much but its easier to do the math on 40 than on 38. On the other hand, with Spoelstra and Riley running the show its tough to imagine a much higher pace than the 0,7 team wide last year. Either way my thinking is that they all take a hit. I would probably still draft LeBron #1 but Wade at #3 and Bosh at #7 probably won't produce that kind of stats.
It'll be fun to see, i don't think we had this much uncertainty at the top in a while. I can even see some GM's going for Durant at #1.
A most interesting debate!
I'll have to get a blog post or something up soon, but my first reaction is that Kevin Durant is now the clear cut #1 pick... I can't think of anyone else i would even consider with that pick (Dwight Howard?)
Look it: Last season LeBron scored almost 30 ppg. Wade had 26.6 and Chris Bosh 24. Even if you want to figure that LeBron and Wade will keep similar assist totals to last season and the Bosh will dish almost three a game without the ball in his hands, and that Wade and LeBron will top the league in rebounding for wingmen even playing next ot bosh and that the shooting %s will go up and make up for the dimished shots a little... You still have to accept there is no freaking way they are going to average the ppg they did last season.
And as the primary component of the KF avg i think those points are all you need to worry about at the moment.
For every 4 points in scoring average dropped the KF avg's gonna drop by a 100. So say you had LeBron at 22 (my guess btw) that would knock 200 points off his average (and still be a respectable 1.050ish, but top not overall). I think Chris Bosh goes down to the 15-18 range... And I think wade goes to the low 20s.
Where does this leave LeBron exactly in the rankings? I'm not sure but its definitely not top pick. And I'd say Chris Bosh is not first round worthy as he'll struggle to break .900... Of course I'll have some deeper analysis to post on this later in the summer...
Oh and my guess as to how this goes down btw is that LeBron becomes the primary playmaker, gets to start plays and keeps his assist totals high (maybe hits 10/g) and that Wade becomes the primary "scorer"/finisher (keeping a high usage rate)... leads the three in scoring but sees his Assist/g take a significnat hit. Bosh's job will be to park close to the basket, get rebound, put backs and hit open jump shots.
And moreover based on the fact that Wade is 28 and imo considerably more mature than LeBron at this juncture... and not taking the PR/backlash hit that LeBron is taking, I think Wade is the leader of that team this year - the KG. And maybe next year too. I think at some point with Wade aging and LeBron moving into his prime, he might take over, but not next season. You heard it here first.
I'd still take LeBron #1. He was .150 (or 6 KF pts per 40 mins) better than the consensus #2 pick. That's a big gap. Bron may score 6 fewer points a game (I don't see 22), but I think his assists and rebounds will rise accordingly. Rebounds, especially, are getting lost in the analysis. He's going to play a lot of 4 on that team. He probably won't be a 1.250 guy, but I could see 1.200. I don't think Durant or Howard gets that high.