"There aren't enough shots in a game for Mayo, Gay and Randolph. Heck, there were issues with just Gay and Mayo last year.

I predict some disappointing KF averages on that team."

-dlbass

With the recent acquisition of Zach Randolph, whether there are enough shots to go around in Memphis seems a most relevant question - as does what the KF Avgs. of the rotation players might look like.

A quick reconstruction of the projected Starting 5 in memphis (at this juncture) with last year's KF Averages and mpg....

PG - Mike Conley.......  0.656 avg., 30.0 mpg

SG - OJ Mayo.............  0.712 avg., 37.5 mpg

SF - Rudy Gay...........  0.763 avg., 36.7 mpg

PF - Zach Randolph......  0.986 avg., 34.6 mpg

C - Marc Gasol.............   0.760 avg., 30.1 mpg

....and the likely rotation players....

F - Hakim Warrick........ 0.759 avg., 24.3 mpg 

F - Darrell Arthur.........  0.645 avg., 17.6 mpg

G - Quentin Ross.....  0.429 avg., 16.7 mpg

G - Greg Buckner...... 0.448 avg., 13.7 mpg

C - Hasheed Thabeet.....   Rookie

....reveals both good and bad news.   First, the team is loaded with non-shot happy, role players from Mike Conley and Gasol as the likely starting Point Guard and Center to guys that act like their not even part of the offense like Ross, Buckner and Thabeet, coming off the bench.    But of course they had these players (with the exception of Thabeet) last season and the offense initiating OJ Mayo only managed a paltry .712 playing next to them.   In fact, the only players to post averages above .800 were Hamed Haddadi and Chris Mihm, and they played a grand total of 111 and 96 minutes respectively for the season.

What then, depressed Memphis averages so?

For one thing they ranked second to last in the league in ppg with a measly 93.9 per game (Only Charlotte under Larry Brown's stifling offense scored less)....  and they were last in shots per game at a lowly 77.

For another (likely in part due to their low shot totals) they were dead last in team Rebounds per game at 38.8 per game.

And then they were also dead last in Assists per game.... their 17.4 apg, two full assists lower than the 29th placed Magic.

They fared better on the lowest components of the KF Avg, ranking 9th overall in steals per game (7.5/g) and 18th in blocks (4.7/g).

Giving the team a grand total KFP per game score of 162.3, that was by far the worst in the NBA, and yielding a collective average of just .676 (assuming not one single overtime played).  Yuck!

The only stat where Memphis outpaced their peers was Turnovers... sadly that does not directly contribute to the KF average, but it does reduce shots, which reduces points scored, and hence possible assists and rebound opportunities.

I do think Randolph will help them score more points and grab more boards.  Gasol and Randolph should be an at least above average front court in boards per game.  With Thabeet and Arthur they have a couple of nice young bigs coming off the bench to pitch in. 

One would expect OJ Mayo to naturally progress in his second season, with better shot selection and reduced turnovers.   Also Randolph's post game should open up more shots on the perimeter.   Conley has to do be better (he just HAS to).

So perhaps Memphis won't be dead last in the three main KF categories next season... maybe they'll be like 25ish...

My fearless predictions:

I think ultimately that Randolph will get his (doesn't he always?) and posts something slighly under his 0.926 career average:

Zach Randolph Career Stats

OJ Mayo will make a natural 2nd year jump and post somewhere in the high .700s... (.785!)

Marc Gasol and Mike Conley will make slight progress to .780 and .690 respectively....

Rudy Gay matches last season (.763), with a 50/50 shot he gets traded mid year.

Q-Ross and Greg Bucker will combine for 25+ minutes a game.

Thabeet posts a sub .500 average...

Darrell Arthur continues to show flashes and posts a .750ish average in very limited minutes.

Hakim Warrik (or his replacement) posts a .600.

And the team total KFP increases to 175 per game for a .720s team average!

What say you?  Sound reasonable or smoking the crack?

2008 Memphis KF Stats

Roster, Year-to-date Stats